Update: Hey Boneyard Banter. I had no idea anyone would find this. If anyone is wondering who I am, I’m Capt Lolbeard on the boards, the son of a former East Carolinian sports writer back in the 70’s (known by the nickname Doctor Zee), and a Sophomore Honor Student at ECU. I kept hearing all this talk about expansion so I figured I’d post my analysis about it. Hope you guys liked it.

Summer is a very interesting time of year. It is a time of graduations, longer days, shorter nights, and is also the exact moment when the conference expansion rumor mill starts spinning so fast, it almost flies off its hinges. In the past, expansion rumors were just that, rumors, but all that changed in 2003 when the Atlantic Coast Conference expanded, pillaging and looting their rivals the Big East. This would set off an expansion wildfire that quickly escalated to Conference USA, who refilled its depleted ranks through the MAC and WAC. When the smoke cleared, East Carolina was once again left at the altar, as many teams like South Florida, who didn’t even play football prior to 1997, were admitted into the Big East ahead of them and obtained the much coveted BCS label.

Big East What If

With the resigning of Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese after this year, the expansion wildfire may once again be close at hand. The conflict between the basketball and football members is something that the new commissioner is going to have to deal with, and soon. Depending on who that commissioner may be, the conflict may only get worse from here, resulting in a split along basketball and football members.

Realistically, there is only one choice for the Big East to save itself: either Big East Football expands to have between 9 and 12 teams (10 being preferred,) or the football and basketball schools will be forced to split and form new conferences.

The question remains, if the Big East expands, who are the likely candidates? All kinds of blogs, sports analysts and crazies recommend all kinds of candidates, but are any of them realistic? Out of the possible choices, you can automatically discount schools that have already left once before. Virginia Tech, Miami, Boston College and Temple left for their own reasons and I doubt that within the span of three to five years that they would change their minds. Schools that are already in BCS conferences are equally as unlikely. It doesn’t make sense for an SEC or Big Ten school to abandon all that money just to settle for less.

You can also discount any I-AA football program. Why would the Big East want to take a school that it would have to mold into a I-A program instead of picking one of the many available choices? It’s like going to the grocery store and buying some pumpkin seeds for Halloween instead of a whole pumpkin. Sure, you’ll have the pumpkin down the road, but you won’t have it when you need it and you have no guarantee of how big it’s going to be and how long it’s going to take.

It is even more unlikely that Notre Dame will want to give up its status as an independent in football. Notre Dame has its own television contracts, the ability to schedule who it wants, an automatic shot to the BCS during eligible seasons, and doesn’t have to go through a conference championship to get it.

This leaves a few teams right on the cusp. Of Conference USA, East Carolina and Memphis seem to be the most likely candidates, whereas teams like Central Florida and Marshall can expect heavy protests from sister universities South Florida and West Virginia. It is expected that FedEx will support Memphis in its bid, but the dark horse in this race is Pepsi and its relationship with ECU. Coca-Cola prides itself on being the official soft drink of the ACC, so what happens if East Carolina brings Pepsi along for the ride? Not only will you be establishing television markets in the ACC’s backyard, but you will be bringing along a large corporate sponsor competing directly with an ACC sponsor.

The Big East could try adding teams from the MAC or a transitioning team like Western Kentucky, but my argument about I-AA schools is also applicable here: why build programs when you get obtain established ones with a history of bowl attendance?

In all the madness, one fact remains: the new commissioner is going to have to do something to mend the conference or the sun may finally set on the Big East.

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